Freeland wins the Prisoner's Dilemma

Ms. Freeland implored Mr. Trudeau to “fight for capital and investment and the jobs they bring.” I wish she’d had this epiphany before she increased the Capital Gains tax rate.

I can make the case that former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is both the heroine and the villain in the Shakespearean drama playing out in Ottawa, but I first want to give her credit for recognizing that her only option – after six months of embarrassing and unfair PMO leaks – was to tell Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

That was the conclusion I arrived at last weekend when I wrote a blog advising the then-Minister to add the following sentence to the end of her Fall Economic statement speech: “I believe I have served our government to the best of my ability, and I’d like to give the Prime Minister latitude to put someone into this role that has his absolute confidence.”

After years of loyalty, it would have been painful for Ms. Freeland to admit that her former colleagues, Jody Wilson-Raybould, Jane Philpott and Bill Morneau were never the problem. All three have thrived since parting ways with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and this episode reminds anyone thinking about running for office just how expendable one is.

More importantly, given her background, she was well-versed in the Prisoner’s Dilemma game theory. That’s why I concluded last week that Ms. Freeland “had nothing to lose” by resigning.

That she did so, some nine hours later, demonstrates just how truly tempestuous things had become. In her resignation letter, Ms. Freeland implored Mr. Trudeau to “fight for capital and investment and the jobs they bring.” Like most entrepreneurs across Canada, I wish she’d had this epiphany before she increased the Capital Gains tax inclusion rate in her most recent budget.

Mr. Trudeau faces the same bleak polls that we did back in December 1992, and it’s unfortunate that the Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney isn’t alive today to call and remind the current office holder of the futility of yet another cabinet shuffle.

My advice for Ms. Freeland was that if she was truly interested in running for Leader, resigning was the right choice. Likewise, if she thought Mr. Carney was the better candidate, setting the PM’s hair on fire would help make that happen; it seems as though that was the path she chose via her poison pen resignation letter.

The rumours promoting Mr. Carney around Ottawa weren’t going to end, for three simple reasons:

1. The PMO mistakenly believes they can publicly guilt Mr. Carney into boarding their sinking ship

2. Mr. Carney’s global brand benefits from each article, and his fans have every reason to keep his name at the top of the list of future Liberal leadership candidates

3. The elements of the Press Gallery that fall into the Anyone But Poilievre camp know that the current Liberal horse is headed for the glue factory

Some believe that it’ll be as soon as a couple or three weeks before Ottawa South MP David McGuinty gets appointed to the Senate, which would require him to resign his HoC seat – conveniently making room for Mr. Carney to arrive on his noble steed. I don’t see that happening, however.

The fact that Ms. Freeland says she intends to run again in the next election maintains her schlep within caucus. We’ll know soon enough if the ultimate goal was to force Mr. Trudeau out in favour of either her own leadership ambitions or those of Mr. Carney.

Nothing is free in life, and all of this mayhem pushed the Canadian dollar below US$0.70 for the first time since the initial Covid scare in March 2020. Whether you’re spending a few days in the U.S. post-Christmas, importing foreign goods or stocking California blueberries, pretty much everyone will have to pay a bit more courtesy of these shenanigans.

These folks are just not worth the cost, as someone once said.

MRM

(note: this post, like all blogs, is an Opinion Piece)

(photo credit: Hot Dog Seller, New Yor, 1951 by Irving Penn)