Freeland as "The Fall Gal"

Dumping more Ministers won't shield Trudeau against the wind

Against the wind
A little something against the wind
I found myself seeking shelter against the wind (by Bob Seger)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau cannot be faulted for seeking some shelter against the cruel winds of change that blow across our land. If Chrystia Freeland is to find herself dispatched to a new cabinet portfolio, or even a foreign Ambassadorial post, following Monday’s Fall Economic Update, it won’t come as a shock. She understands that Canada’s Finance Minister of the day will always be “The Fall Gal.”

It goes with the territory.

“Is the minister of finance about to become Brian Mulroney’s fall guy?” was the title of my Dad’s 1986 cover story on then-Finance Minister Michael Wilson. Mr. Wilson held the role for a seven year stretch in then-Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s cabinet. As he describes in his recent memoir, “Interior Landscapes,” my father had developed “the thesis that if Mr. Wilson’s deficit predictions didn’t work out or some other financial crisis caused trouble for the country, Mr. Mulroney would blame his self-effacing finance Minister because Mr. Wilson wouldn’t protest.”

Plenty was accomplished on Mr. Wilson’s watch, but that didn’t prevent him from eventually being shuffled-off to the International Trade portfolio in 1991. The stain of the introduction of the GST that January, when combined with a global economic recession, left voters naturally angry.

Deputy Prime Minister Don Mazankowski was handed the Finance gig for the final two years of that government era, but the move wound up having no impact on Mr. Mulroney’s re-election chances. Once we fell below 20% in the polls, I doubt Canadians cared which Progressive Conservative MP held any particular Cabinet post.

Something Mr. Trudeau, facing similar polling data, seems reticent to admit as he looks to refresh – yet again – his front benches.

I do believe that individuals can make a difference in key roles, and the allure of bringing in fresh blood is what keeps hope alive for most sports fans.

This latest round of Mark Carney drum beats (such as the Globe’s “Trudeau makes fresh bid to recruit Mark Carney amid tensions with Freeland”) looks a tad silly, given how poorly a similar effort went last summer. It was only the 10^th of July when I tried to give the Chief of Staff Katie Telford some career counselling in a Toronto Star column:

Although the Boss would never ask for your resignation, it might be the only arrow left in your quiver. You already shuffled the cabinet, dropping seven ministers last summer in the hopes a “big recalibration” might turn things around. It didn’t. Despite your government’s prioritization of domestic political considerations over the security needs of Israel, high profile Liberals, such as Paramount Fine Foods’ Founder Mohamad Fakih (a recent Order of Canada recipient), are starting to bail on Trudeau. Ouch.

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If you leave now, this generation’s “nervous Nellies” will likely fall back into line. Should Trudeau win the next election, you’ll be a hot commodity in Corporate Canada, unless you’d prefer to be our High Commissioner in London.

In the event Trudeau doesn’t run again, you can hold your head high and say: “I did everything I could.” The time to go is now; it’s what’s best for you both.

Rather than take my advice, PMO staff were quick to deflect attention away from Ms. Telford. Several “senior officials” appear to have immediately got on the phone with the Globe’s Ottawa Bureau Chief, Robert Fife. He published the following bombshell on July 11^th:

There is always a healthy tension between Finance and a PMO, but the fingerpointing comes after the Liberals lost the safe Toronto riding of St. Paul’s in a by-election last month that was contested by Ms. Freeland’s former chief of staff Leslie Church. The loss prompted strong criticism from some Liberals for the Prime Minster to reconsider his future, shake up his cabinet and set a new policy direction for the government.

Although there are no indications the Prime Minister is planning imminently to shuffle Ms. Freeland to another portfolio, a government source said there were discussions internally about the possibility of recruiting former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney as finance minister.

Two sources say the view of some senior officials within the PMO, including chief of staff Katie Telford, is that Ms. Freeland has been ineffective in selling the government’s economic policies that have come under assault from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The PM and Mr. Carney met the following Sunday, but The Boss made no headway. In my column that followed, I imagined Mr. Carney ending the meeting this way: “Let’s see where your polling numbers are next February. I’m gonna sit tight ‘till then. Life is too good!”

Whatever is going on right now in Ottawa reminds anyone thinking about running for office just how expendable you are as a Minister of the Crown. Unless Minister Freeland has been freelancing at Finance, the commitments she has made about deficits and Debt/GDP were on behalf of the entire government, including the PM. It’s not as though she doesn’t report to Mr. Trudeau, who must approve her budgets and economic statements before they are introduced to the House of Commons.

Tomorrow’s Fall Economic Statement isn’t “hers.”

Minister Freeland is delivering the good, bad and ugly on behalf of her colleagues on the government side. If the deficit is higher than promised, that’s either because the government got their annual revenue and borrowing cost projections wrong, or else her Ministerial colleagues spent more than had been agreed to. In the latter case, there should be consequences.

Speaking of spending, John Ivison is reporting that Minister Freeland “will reverse the government’s position on the ‘Working Canadians Rebate” that would have cost an estimated $4.68 billion.”

One person with knowledge of the plans said that the measure will not be in the fiscal update on Monday, but the government hopes to take another look in the new year, if it can find another party to support it.

The removal of the commitment to spend nearly $5 billion on a measure the Finance Department did not believe made financial sense will be seen as a victory of sorts for Freeland.

As a counterstrike, I give the Finance Minister full marks. It will not have been fun to read this latest round of Carney recruiting stories:

“After months of reports that the Prime Minister wanted to turf Canada’s first female finance minister, we find out today that he’s in talks to put an unelected, conflict-of-interest-riddled-man into the role,” charged Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner.

I have to wonder why she’d stay in the job, once she’s delivered her statement tomorrow. If Minister Freeland is truly interested in running for Leader, perhaps adding the following line to the end of her statement would be for the best: “I believe I have served our government to the best of my ability, and I’d like to give the Prime Minister latitude to put someone into this role that has his absolute confidence.” It would be brutal, effective, and international news.

There’s certainly precedence. In the Diefenbaker era, Defence Minister Douglas Harkness resigned to protest his PM’s opposition to putting U.S. nuclear warheads on Canadian soil. The cabinet split, and Dief was soon out.

If Minister Freeland isn’t interested in being Leader herself, but intends to stay on as an opposition MP in 2026, or land some multilateral role, I suppose the wiser course of action would be to take the high road this week. But if she’d like to propel Mr. Carney, the Godfather to one of her children, into the poll position – now’s the time. Even the eloquent Housing Minister Sean Fraser, who came second (at -10) to Mr. Carney (at -4) in Angus Reid’s July survey, has had enough.

What does Minister Freeland have to lose? “You can’t fire me, I quit!”

MRM

(note: this post, like all blogs, is an Opinion Piece)

(photo credit: Cartier Messenger, New York, 1951 by Irving Penn)