The Conservatives have a plan. But the Liberals have something you can’t plan for....

If Chrystia Freeland had only accepted her pre-Christmas cabinet demotion, Trudeau might well have continued to keep his caucus detractors at bay, much as he’d done throughout 2024.

The genesis of this Star column was the series of news stories about some poorly-timed inside baseball stuff. I’m not interested in taking sides between various political factions, despite being someone who understands the temptation to “help” the folks in power see the facts for what they are. To quote the late Brian Mulroney from a media scrum at the 1986 PC Convention: “It wouldn’t be the Conservative party if the press couldn’t fund somebody who finds things unacceptable” (via The Toronto Star).

If you want to see how this week’s Star column ends, buy a print copy, use your Apple News, or subscribe to The Star online via my special discount code: www.thestar.com/informed.

One of the grand traditions in federal political campaigns is that someone will always chirp: “If only they’d put me in charge, we wouldn’t be losing!” Yet winning is never easy, particularly for Conservatives.

A year ago, when the CPC was riding high, many in Canada’s entrepreneurial community were relieved. The Liberal government had just increased the capital gains tax inclusion rate to an uncompetitive level, adding insult to the injuries of a reckless immigration strategy and ineffective housing initiatives. These business folks weren’t partisan types, but they took the Conservatives’ 18-point lead as evidence that years of self-destructive economic and social policies would soon come to an end.

Despite the raft of positive signs, I tried to temper the excitement by reminding my peers that “we usually lose” and to take nothing for granted.

Not that Conservatives deserve to lose. It’s just that — for one reason or another — the Liberals have won 15 of the past 24 federal elections (post-Second World War). And, of the nine elections we did win, we were able to pull off a majority on just four occasions. Had Lucien Bouchard launched the Bloc Québécois in 1987 rather than 1991, we might not have won that pivotal majority in 1988 either. No “Orange Wave” in 2011, no CPC majority.

Gerald Butts, who has adeptly guided the fortunes of both our former and current prime ministers, isn’t joking when he says, “All three Trudeau Liberal campaigns were among the most efficient in Canadian history.” The reality is that there are more votes on his side of the political spectrum.

Over the past 24 elections, the Liberals and NDP (and before 1961, the CCF) averaged 53.3 per cent of the aggregate popular vote. Conservative parties, including the Progressive Conservatives, the Reform Party and the modern CPC, averaged just over 36 per cent in aggregate. That 17-point differential may sound massive, but 36 per cent was sufficient for Joe Clark and Stephen Harper to win minority governments in 1979 and 2006 — thanks to Ed Broadbent and Jack Layton, respectively.

Whatever the subtext of the recent backbiting is, the current CPC campaign strategy is working well enough for Pierre Poilievre to be polling at 37 per cent nationally, and he’s drawing far larger crowds than any other leader. But the Liberals have something you can’t plan for: dumb luck.

Hit the link to read the rest of the piece.

MRM

(this post is an Opinion Piece)