Pierre Poilievre’s superpower led to Conservative gains this election. Here’s what he has to do next

Imagine if Kamala Harris had been elected President rather than Donald Trump. Would Monday’s Canadian election have been the same in the absence of the “51^st State” mantra?

It seems inconceivable, even if that dynamic isn’t meant to be used as a crutch by the Tory war room: you don’t always get to choose your battlefield.

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As moral victories go, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre may be justifiably proud to have shamed the Liberals into reversing themselves on several significant policy errors in recent months — even if his tireless efforts didn’t translate to a set of keys to the Prime Minister’s Office. Yet while moral victories might keep the NDP afloat, Conservatives play to win.

Despite Poilievre’s luxurious lead time and his party’s bottomless chequebook, electoral victory never came, and two worthy schools of thought will emerge in the wake of a shocking few weeks.

Poilievre fans will fairly trumpet that his 41 per cent vote share is the Tories’ highest since 2003, when the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged to form the current Conservative Party of Canada.

With NDP support having fallen by two-thirds, there’s no question that Poilievre faced an uphill climb, given traditional progressive voting patterns. I’m not a fan of Poilievre’s “Boots Not Suits” slogan, but his unrelenting focus on working-class audiences appears to have paid off in traditionally tough ridings around Hamilton, Sudbury and Windsor — and that’s a fabulous building block.

Without U.S. President Donald Trump as his foil, it’s unclear what Mark Carney would have pitched to voters beyond pinky-promising to deliver on refried Liberal announcements, plus ideas he lifted from the Conservatives, such as reversing the job-killing increase to the capital gains tax rate.

Another distinguishing feature of this election is that it was the first in 18 consecutive outings in which the federal party that won the most seats in Quebec wasn’t led by a man born in that province. Carney can thank Trump for that assist. Meanwhile, Jamil Jivani, the Tory MP for Bowmanville–Oshawa North, publicly blamed Ontario Premier Doug Ford for “sabotaging the Conservative campaign” in Canada’s largest province.

For the Tory candidates who suffered a 30-point negative swing in less than four months, a combination of anger, disappointment and confusion will reign. Do they blame Trump? Their Leader? His campaign team? The media? Back-biting from Ford’s camp?

Some members of the “woulda, coulda, shoulda” crowd will argue that one of Poilievre’s key errors was to demean former Progressive Conservative leader Jean Charest during the leadership race in 2022, when it would have been so easy to let him lose with dignity. Had Poilievre embraced Charest and recruited him to be his Quebec lieutenant, would French Canadian voters have had somewhere else to turn besides Carney? Charest’s presence might also have mollified voters who are clearly more comfortable with the Progressive Conservative tradition, including in places like Nova Scotia, where Premier Tim Houston just netted another majority government.

Another key missed opportunity was the decision not to trek down to Washington to meet with Vice-President JD Vance, in private, to show worried voters that Poilievre could play pro ball. Ford got points for trying.

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MRM

(this post is an Opinion Piece)