Is it time for Trudeau to throw a Hail Flutie pass?
News Report: Trudeau and Carney have discussed former Bank Governor joining the team as finance minister
In the wake of the Liberal by-election loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, it feels a bit pointless to leap on any particular storyline during what’s going to be a very dynamic period, replete with leaks, trial balloons and truly fake “news.”
There’s been some excellent reporting so far, and Justin Ling’s first-person account in The Star (if you want to read this fascinating piece, readers of my Substack now get a discount on their Star subscription via this link: www.thestar.com/informed) of Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault loudly calling fellow caucus members while sitting beside him at the VIA Rail waiting lounge is by far the most compelling:
Over the course of three phone calls, it became clear Guilbeault was feeling around for who might be most likely to call for Trudeau’s departure. “I’ve been asked by PMO (the Prime Minister’s Office) to make some calls and talk to people and report back,” he said on one of those calls.
If I was a GTA Liberal backbencher on the other end of the line, I’d assume that Minister Guilbeault had been authorized by Prime Minister Trudeau’s Chief of Staff Katie Telford (with or without the PM’s knowledge) to take the temperature of caucus members. Weirdly, those kind of calls make one feel as though the PM and his team are interested in your opinion, even if they’re using a self-described “Proud Socialist” as one of their proxies. Knowing where you stand with your caucus is essential in our political system, and Mr. Trudeau will certainly benefit from whatever feedback is sent up the chain — verbatim, distilled, even sanitized.
That Minister Guilbeault wasn’t overheard reminding his colleagues of the recent Angus Reid Institute poll that found that the Liberal Party will do even worse at the ballot box if Trudeau is forced out than if he stays, makes these outreach calls seem much more genuine than otherwise. If I’m an MP and friendly with potential leadership candidates Foreign Minister Melanie Joly or Brookfield’s Mark Carney, for example, I’d immediately doubt that Trudeau’s team was all that interested in my opinion if it turned out that the real reason for the call was to school me on what’s reportedly best for my own re-election chances.
Speaking of interesting storylines, Althia Raj’s sources tell her that Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Carney have discussed the former Bank Governor joining the team as Canada’s newest finance minister (whether those conversations are fresh or date back to 2021 wasn’t clear). Assuming the conversations were recent, this is a very complicated proposition for it requires:
Trudeau to be comfortable with the idea that he needs saving from political oblivion prior to walking out the door on his own next February.
Trudeau to accept the risk that if the Federal Liberals are polling substantially better at Christmas than today, Carney will be given more credit than he’s probably due for the rebound in their fortunes. Which will only serve to give the Scott Brison’s and Catherine McKenna’s of the world ammunition that Carney is the only viable candidate to replace the PM as Liberal Party Leader prior to the 2025 election.
Trudeau would have to immediately manufacture a by-election so that Carney can win a safe House of Commons seat.
Carney will have to conclude that his chances of eventually winning the Liberal helm are materially better if he joins HMCS Trudeau now, rather than remaining on the jetty as the ship continues to disappear beneath the waves.
Trudeau — a self-proclaimed feminist — to fire Canada’s first female Finance Minister, having previously dispatched other strong women (Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott) in an effort to save his political skin during earlier political struggles.
The idea of recruiting Mr. Carney to the front benches of a government isn’t new, and I think I was the first to broach the idea publicly back in 2011 (see prior post “How about Carney as Minister of Economic Transformation?” Feb 8-11). That was a long time ago, and I didn’t know much about then-BoC Governor Carney’s political ideals at the time. He was rumoured to have Liberal leanings, but I though that as a Cabinet Minister in Stephen Harper’s minority government it would be all upside for the Conservatives:
As hard as our Ministers of Finance, Industry, Infrastructure, Labour, Natural Resources, Science & Technology, Agriculture, etc. work on their own important initiatives, it is difficult in a Minority Parliament to bring all of those efforts together to form an effective national economic strategy — or, at least, get credit for the one you have. And given the government’s full plate, the “Innovation Economy” and all that this entails, remains deep on the list of priorities (see prior post “HoC Finance Committee appearance: good news/bad news” Oct 12-10).
By appointing Governor Carney to the Senate, and swearing him into Cabinet in this new role, the message to voters would be crystal clear: we aren’t resting on our laurels. The government has reached out and added a recognized lover of policy with acknowledged international economic qualifications. By accepting such an offer, if he were to do so, Governor Carney telegraphs to Canadians that he’s prepared to put his money where his mouth is, so to speak, and that the Harper team is the right group to transform Canada’s economy for the needs of the 21st century.
We Conservatives know a lot more about Mr. Carney’s impractical idealism today than we did thirteen years ago (see my Star column “Bank chiefs walk tightrope on energy evolution” June 13-24), which is clearly what draws single-minded environmentalists like Ms. McKenna to his bright flame, for example.
Mr. Trudeau may well be as skilled as one-time Boston College Quarterback Doug Flutie, but I highly doubt that he’ll try to throw this particular pass, whatever the merits or drawbacks may be.
MRM
(this post, like all blogs, is an Opinion Piece)
(photo: “Football Face 2002,” by Irving Penn)
I think Carney is smart enough to avoid any association with the “Trudeau Liberal” party. The Trudeau Liberals have lost the majority of Canadians and for very good reason(s). Carney would be much better served spending the next 4 years during Conservative rule (I think it is inevitable) within the Liberal Party repairing the extensive damage done to the party through Trudeau’s misguided and damaging ideology, moving the party closer to its roots and to the centre, focusing on fiscal conservatism and planning on how to repair the country’s heavily damaged balance sheet while improving the economy and our productivity. This will require an extensive change in the makeup of the Liberal party, removing a large number of hardcore lefties (Seamus comes to mind). if he can successfully do that then he MAY have a shot at winning in the successive election, but he would be damaging his own reputation by associating with anything to do with the “Trudeau Liberal” party, which is a very different party than what the Real Liberal party stands for. I recall fondly the Liberal party under Paul Martin’s leadership.